forallmenhavetwowaysofimprovement，onearisingfromtheirownexperience，andonefromtheexperienceofothers。Evidentiorquidemillaest，quaeperpropriaducitinfortuniaattutiorilla，quaeperaliena。“IuseCasubon’stranslation。Polybiusgoeson，andconcludes，“thatsincethefirstofthesewaysexposesustogreatlaborandperil，whilstthesecondworksthesamegoodeffect，andisattendedbynoevilcircumstance，everyoneoughttotakeforgrantedthatthestudyofhistoryisthebestschoolwherehecanlearnhowtoconducthimselfinallthesituationsoflife。“RegulushadseenatRomemanyexamplesofmagnanimity，offrugality，ofthecontemptofriches，andofothervirtues；andthesevirtueshepractised。Buthehadnotlearned，norhadopportunityoflearninganotherlesson，whichtheexamplesrecordedinhistoryinculcatefrequently，thelessonofmoderation。Aninsatiablethirstofmilitaryfame，anunconfinedambitionofextendingtheirempire，anextravagantconfidenceintheirowncourageandforce，aninsolentcontemptoftheirenemies，andanimpetuousoverbearingspiritwithwhichtheypursuedalltheirenterprises，composedinhisdaysthedistinguishingcharacterofaRoman。Whateverthesenateandpeopleresolved，tothemembersofthatcommonwealthappearedbothpracticableandjust。Neitherdifficultiesnordangerscouldcheckthem；andtheirsageshadnotyetdiscovered，thatvirtuesinexcessdegenerateintovices。NotwithstandingthebeautifulrantwhichHoraceputsintohismouth，ImakenodoubtthatReguluslearnedatCarthagethoselessonsofmoderationwhichhehadnotlearnedatRome：buthelearnedthembyexperience，andthefruitsofthisexperiencecametoolate，andcosttoodear；fortheycostthetotaldefeatoftheRomanarmy，theprolongationofacalamitouswarwhichmighthavebeenfinishedbyagloriouspeace，thelossoflibertytothousandsofRomancitizens，andtoRegulushimselfthelossoflifeinthemidstoftorments，ifweareentirelytocreditwhatisperhapsexaggerationintheRomanauthors。
Thereisanotheradvantage，worthyourobservation，thatbelongstothestudyofhistory；andthatIshallmentionhere，notonlybecauseoftheimportanceofit，butbecauseitleadsmeimmediatelytospeakofthenatureoftheimprovementweoughttohaveinourview，andofthemethodinwhichitseemstomethatthisimprovementoughttobepursued：twoparticularsfromwhichyourlordshipmaythinkperhapsthatIdigresstoolong。TheadvantageImeanconsistsinthis，thattheexampleswhichhistorypresentstous，bothofmenandofevents，aregenerallycomplete。thewholeexampleisbeforeus，andconsequentlythewholelesson，orsometimesthevariouslessons，whichphilosophyproposestoteachusbythisexample。Forfirst，astomen；
weseethemattheirwholelengthinhistory，andweseethemgenerallytherethroughamediumlesspartialatleastthanthatofexperience：forIimaginethatawhigoratory，whilstthosepartiessubsisted，wouldhavecondemnedinSaturninusthespiritoffactionwhichheapplaudedinhisowntribunes，andwouldhaveapplaudedinDrususthespiritofmoderationwhichhedespisedinthoseofthecontraryparty，andwhichhesuspectedandhatedinthoseofhisownparty。Thevillainwhohasimposedonmankindbyhispowerorcunning，andwhomexperiencecouldnotunmaskforatime，isunmaskedatlength：andthehonestman，whohasbeenmisunderstoodordefamed，isjustifiedbeforehisstoryends。Orifthisdoesnothappen，ifthevillaindieswithhismaskon，inthemidstofapplause，andhonor，andwealth，andpower，andifthehonestmandiesunderthesameloadofcalumnyanddisgraceunderwhichhelived，drivenperhapsintoexile，andexposedtowant；yetweseehistoricaljusticeexecuted，thenameofonebrandedwithinfamy，andthatoftheothercelebratedwithpanegyrictosucceedingages。“Praecipuummunusannaliumreor，nevirtutessileantur；utquepravisdictisfactisqueexposteritateetinfamiametussit。“Thus，accordingtoTacitus，andaccordingtotruth，fromwhichhisjudgmentsseldomdeviate，theprincipaldutyofhistoryistoerectatribunal，likethatamongtheEgyptians，mentionedbyDiodorusSiculus，wheremenandprincesthemselvesweretried，andcondemnedoracquitted，aftertheirdeaths；wherethosewhohadnotbeenpunishedfortheircrimes，andthosewhohadnotbeenhonoredfortheirvirtues，receivedajustretribution。Thesentenceispronouncedinonecase，asitwasintheother，toolatetocorrectorrecompense；butitispronouncedintimetorendertheseexamplesofgeneralinstructiontomankind。ThusCicero，thatImayquoteoneinstanceoutofthousands，andthatImaydojusticetothegeneralcharacterofthatgreatman，whoseparticularfailingIhavecensuredsofreely。Cicero，Isay，wasabandonedbyOctavius，andmassacredbyAntony。ButletanymanreadthisfragmentofAureliusFuscus，andchoosewhichhewouldwishtohavebeen，theorator，orthetriumvir？“Quoadhumanumgenusincolumemanserit，quamdiuususliteris，honorsummaeeloquentiaepretiumerit，quamdiurerumnaturaautfortunasteterit，autmemoriaduraverit，admirabileposterisvigebisingenium，etunoproscriptusseculo，proscribesAntoniumomnibus。“
Thusagain，astoeventsthatstandrecordedinhistory；weseethemall，weseethemastheyfollowedoneanother，orastheyproducedoneanother，causesoreffects，immediateorremote。Wearecastback，asitwere，intoformerages：welivewiththemenwholivedbeforeus，andweinhabitcountriesthatweneversaw。Placeisenlarged，andtimeprolonged，inthismanner；
sothatthemanwhoapplieshimselfearlytothestudyofhistory，mayacquireinafewyears，andbeforehesetshisfootabroadintheworld，notonlyamoreextendedknowledgeofmankind，buttheexperienceofmorecenturiesthananyofthepatriarchssaw。Theeventswearewitnessesof，inthecourseofthelongestlife，appeartousveryoftenoriginal，unprepared，single，andunrelative，ifImayusesuchanexpressionforwantofabetterEnglish；
inFrenchIwouldsayisolé；s：theyappearsuchveryoften，arecalledaccidents，andlookedonastheeffectsofchance；aword，bytheway，whichisinconstantuse，andhasfrequentlynodeterminatemeaning。Wegetoverthepresentdifficulty，weimprovethemomentaryadvantage，aswellaswecan，andwelooknofarther。Experiencecancarryusnofarther；forexperiencecangoaverylittlewaybackindiscoveringcauses：andeffectsarenottheobjectsofexperiencetilltheyhappen。Fromhencemanyerrorsinjudgment，andbyconsequenceinconduct，necessarilyarise。Andheretooliesthedifferencewearespeakingofbetweenhistoryandexperience。Theadvantageonthesideoftheformerisdouble。Inancienthistory，aswehavesaidalready，theexamplesarecomplete，whichareincompleteinthecourseofexperience。
Thebeginning，theprogression，andtheendappear，notofparticularreigns，muchlessofparticularenterprises，orsystemsofpolicyalone，butofgovernments，ofnations，ofempires，andofallthevarioussystemsthathavesucceededoneanotherinthecourseoftheirduration。Inmodernhistory，theexamplesmaybe，andsometimesare，incomplete；buttheyhavethisadvantagewhentheyareso，thattheyservetorendercompletetheexamplesofourowntime。
Experienceisdoublydefective；weareborntoolatetoseethebeginning，andwedietoosoontoseetheendofmanythings。Historysuppliesboththesedefects。Modernhistoryshowsthecauses，whenexperiencepresentstheeffectsalone：andancienthistoryenablesustoguessattheeffects，whenexperiencepresentsthecausesalone。Letmeexplainmymeaningbytwoexamplesofthesekinds；onepast，theotheractuallypresent。
Whentherevolutionofonethousandsixhundredandeighty-eighthappened，fewmenthenalive，Isuppose，wentfartherintheirsearchafterthecausesofit，thantheextravagantattemptofkingJamesagainstthereligionandlibertyofhispeople。Hisformerconduct，andthepassagesofkingCharlestheSecond’sreignmightranklestillattheheartsofsomemen，butcouldnotbesettoaccountamongthecausesofhisdeposition；sincehehadsucceeded，notwithstandingthem，peaceablytothethrone：andthenationingeneral，evenmanyofthosewhowouldhaveexcludedhimfromit，weredesirous，oratleastwilling，thatheshouldcontinueinit。Nowthisexample，thusstated，affords，nodoubt，muchgoodinstructiontothekings，andpeopleofBritain。
Butthisinstructionisnotentire，becausetheexamplethusstated，andconfinedtotheexperienceofthatage，isimperfect。KingJames’smal-administrationrenderedarevolutionnecessaryandpracticable；buthismal-administration，aswellasallhisprecedingconduct，wascausedbyhisbigotattachmenttopopery，andtotheprinciplesofarbitrarygovernment，fromwhichnowarningcoulddiverthim。Hisbigotattachmenttothesewascausedbytheexileoftheroyalfamily；thisexilewascausedbytheusurpationofCromwell：andCromwell’susurpationwastheeffectofaformerrebellion，begunnotwithoutreasononaccountofliberty，butwithoutanyvalidpretenceonaccountofreligion。Duringthisexile，ourprincescaughtthetaintofpoperyandforeignpolitics。Wemadethemunfittogovernus，andafterthatwereforcedtorecallthemthattheymightrescueusoutofanarchy。Itwasnecessarytherefore，yourlordshipsees，attherevolution，anditismoresonow，togobackinhistory，atleastasfarasIhavementioned，andperhapsfarther，eventothebeginningofkingJamestheFirst’sreign，torenderthiseventacompleteexample，andtodevelopeallthewise，honest，andsalutaryprecepts，withwhichitispregnant，bothtokingandsubject。
Theotherexampleshallbetakenfromwhathassucceededtherevolution。
Fewmenatthattimelookedforwardenoughtoforeseethenecessaryconsequencesofthenewconstitutionoftherevenue，thatwassoonafterwardsformed；
norofthemethodoffundingthatimmediatelytookplace；which，absurdastheyare，havecontinuedeversince，tillitisbecomescarcepossibletoalterthem。Fewpeople，Isay，foresawhowthecreationoffunds，andthemultiplicationoftaxes，wouldincreaseyearlythepowerofthecrown，andbringourlibertiesbyanaturalandnecessaryprogression，intomorereal，thoughlessapparentdanger，thantheywereinbeforetherevolution。TheexcessiveillhusbandrypractisedfromtheverybeginningofkingWilliam’sreign，andwhichlaidthefoundationsofallwefeelandallwefear，wasnottheeffectofignorance，mistakes，orwhatwecallchance，butofdesignandschemeinthosewhohadtheswayatthattime。Iamnotsouncharitable，however，astobelievethattheyintendedtobringupontheircountryallthemischiefsthatwe，whocameafterthem，experienceandapprehend。No，theysawthemeasures，theytooksingly，andunrelatively，orrelativelyalonetosomeimmediateobject。Thenotionofattachingmentothenewgovernment，bytemptingthemtoembarktheirfortunesonthesamebottom，wasareasonofstatetosome：thenotionofcreatinganew，thatis，amoneyedinterest，inoppositiontothelandedinterestorasabalancetoit，andofacquiringasuperiorinfluenceinthecityofLondonatleastbytheestablishmentofgreatcorporations，wasareasonofpartytoothers：andImakenodoubtthattheopportuniesofamassingimmenseestatesbythemanagementoffunds，bytraffickinginpaper，andbyalltheartsofjobbing，wasareasonofprivateinteresttothosewhosupportedandimprovedthisschemeofiniquity，ifnottothosewhodevisedit。Theylookednofarther。Nay，wewhocameafterthem，andhavelongtastedthebitterfruitsofthecorruptiontheyplanted，werefarfromtakingsuchanalarmatourdistressandourdanger，astheydeserved；tillthemostremoteandfataleffectsofcauses，laidbythelastgeneration，wasverynearbecominganobjectofexperienceinthis。Yourlordship，Iamsure，seesatoncehowmuchaduereflectiononthepassagesofformertimes，astheystandrecordedinthehistoryofourown，andofothercountries，wouldhavedeterredafreepeoplefromtrustingthesolemanagementofsogreatarevenue，andthesolenominationofthoselegionsofofficersemployedinit，totheirchiefmagistrate。Thereremainedindeednopretencefordoingso，whenonceasalarywassettledontheprince，andthepublicrevenuewasnolongerinanysensehisrevenue，northepublicexpensehisexpense。Givemeleavetoadd，thatitwouldhavebeen，andwouldbestill，moredecentwithregardtotheprince，andlessrepugnantifnotmoreconformabletotheprinciplesandpracticetooofourgovernment，totakethispowerandinfluencefromtheprince，ortoshareitwithhim；thantoexcludemenfromtheprivilegeofrepresentingtheirfellow-subjectswhowouldchoosetheminparliament，purelybecausetheyareemployedandtrustedbytheprince。
Yourlordshipsees，notonlyhowmuchaduereflectionupontheexperienceofotheragesandcountrieswouldhavepointedoutnationalcorruption，asthenaturalandnecessaryconsequenceofinvestingthecrownwiththemanagementofsogreatarevenue；butalsothelossofliberty，asthenaturalandnecessaryconsequenceofnationalcorruption。
Thesetwoexamplesexplainsufficientlywhattheyareintendedtoexplain。
Itonlyremainsthereforeuponthishead，toobservethedifferencebetweenthetwomannersinwhichhistorysuppliesthedefectsofourownexperience。
Itshowsuscausesasinfacttheywerelaid，withtheirimmediateeffects：
anditenablesustoguessatfutureevents。Itcandonomore，inthenatureofthings。MyLordBacon，inhissecondbookoftheAdvancementofLearning，havinginhismind，Isuppose，whatPhiloandJosephusassertedofMoses，affirmsdivinehistorytohavethisprerogative，thatthenarrationmaybebeforethefactaswellasafter。Butsincetheagesofprophecy，aswellasmiracles，arepast，wemustcontentourselvestoguessatwhatwillbe，bywhathasbeen：wehavenoothermeansinourpower，andhistoryfurnishesuswiththese。Howwearetoimprove，andapplythesemeans，aswellashowwearetoacquirethem，shallbededucedmoreparticularlyinanotherletter。