Theaverageproportionofbirthstoburialsinanycountryforaperiodoffivetotenyears，willhenceappeartobeaveryinadequatecriterionbywhichtojudgeofitsrealprogressinpopulation。Thisproportioncertainlyshewstherateofincreaseduringthosefiveortenyears;butwecanbynomeansthenceinferwhathadbeentheincreaseforthetwentyyearsbefore，orwhatwouldbetheincreaseforthetwentyyearsafter。DrPriceobservesthatSweden，Norway，Russia，andthekingdomofNaples，areincreasingfast;buttheextractsfromregistersthathehasgivenarenotforperiodsofsufficientextenttoestablishthefact。Itishighlyprobable，however，thatSweden，Norway，andRussia，arereallyincreasingtheirpopulation，thoughnotattheratethattheproportionofbirthstoburialsfortheshortperiodsthatDrPricetakeswouldseemtoshew。（SeeDrPrice’sObservations，Vol。ii，postscripttothecontroversyonthepopulationofEnglandandWales。）Forfiveyears，endingin1777，theproportionofbirthstoburialsinthekingdomofNapleswas144to1OO，butthereisreasontosupposethatthisproportionwouldindicateanincreasemuchgreaterthanwouldbereallyfoundtohavetakenplaceinthatkingdomduringaperiodofahundredyears。
DrShortcomparedtheregistersofmanyvillagesandmarkettownsinEnglandfortwoperiods;thefirst，fromQueenElizabethtothemiddleofthelastcentury，andthesecond，fromdifferentyearsattheendofthelastcenturytothemiddleofthepresent。Andfromacomparisonoftheseextracts，itappearsthatintheformerperiodthebirthsexceededtheburialsintheproportionof124to100，butinthelatter，onlyintheproportionof111to100。DrPricethinksthattheregistersintheformerperiodarenottobedependedupon，but，probably，inthisinstancetheydonotgiveincorrectproportions。Atleasttherearemanyreasonsforexpectingtofindagreaterexcessofbirthsabovetheburialsintheformerperiodthaninthelatter。
Inthenaturalprogressofthepopulationofanycountry，moregoodlandwill，caeterisparibus，betakenintocultivationintheearlierstagesofitthaninthelater。（Isay’caeterisparibus’，becausetheincreaseoftheproduceofanycountrywillalwaysverygreatlydependonthespiritofindustrythatprevails，andthewayinwhichitisdirected。Theknowledgeandhabitsofthepeople，andothertemporarycauses，particularlythedegreeofcivillibertyandequalityexistingatthetime，mustalwayshavegreatinfluenceinexcitinganddirectingthisspirit。）Andagreaterproportionalyearlyincreaseofproducewillalmostinvariablybefollowedbyagreaterproportionalincreaseofpopulation。But，besidesthisgreatcause，whichwouldnaturallygivetheexcessofbirthsaboveburialsgreaterattheendofQueenElizabeth’sreignthaninthemiddleofthepresentcentury，Icannothelpthinkingthattheoccasionalravagesoftheplagueintheformerperiodmusthavehadsometendencytoincreasethisproportion。Ifanaverageoftenyearshadbeentakenintheintervalsofthereturnsofthisdreadfuldisorder，oriftheyearsofplaguehadbeenrejectedasaccidental，theregisterswouldcertainlygivetheproportionofbirthstoburialstoohighfortherealaverageincreaseofthepopulation。Forsomefewyearsafterthegreatplaguein1666，itispRobablethattherewasamorethanusualexcessofbirthsaboveburials，particularlyifDrPrice’sopinionbefounded，thatEnglandwasmorepopulousattherevolution（whichhappenedonlytwenty—twoyearsafterwards）thanitisatpresent。
MrKing，in1693，statedtheproportionofthebirthstotheburialsthroughouttheKingdom，exclusiveofLondon，as115to100。DrShortmakesit，inthemiddleofthepresentcentury，111
to100，includingLondon。TheproportioninFranceforfiveyears，endingin1774，was117to100。Ifthesestatementsarenearthetruth;andiftherearenoverygreatvariationsatparticularperiodsintheproportions，itwouldappearthatthepopulationofFranceandEnglandhasaccommodateditselfverynearlytotheaverageproduceofeachcountry。Thediscouragementstomarriage，theconsequentvicioushabits，war，luxury，thesilentthoughcertaindepopulationoflargetowns，andtheclosehabitations，andinsufficientfoodofmanyofthepoor，preventpopulationfromincreasingbeyondthemeansofsubsistence;and，ifImayuseanexpressionwhichcertainlyatfirstappearsstrange，supercedethenecessityofgreatandravagingepidemicstorepresswhatisredundant。WereawastingplaguetosweepofftwomillionsinEngland，andsixmillionsinFrance，therecanbenodoubtwhateverthat，aftertheinhabitantshadrecoveredfromthedreadfulshock，theproportionofbirthstoburialswouldbemuchabovewhatitisineithercountryatpresent。