The Theory of Business

第23章

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第23章

The Theory of Business 佚名

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The Theory of Business
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  Atsomepointinthesystemofinvestmentandbusinessextensionwillbefoundsomebranchesofindustrywhichhavegraduallylostwhatdifferentialadvantagetheystartedoutwithwhentheyenteredontheeraofprosperity;andiftheseareinvolvedinlargecontractsandundertakingswhicharecarriedoverintothephaseofthemovementatwhichthisparticularbranchofindustryhasceasedtohaveadifferentialadvantageinthepriceofitsoutputoverthecostofitssuppliesofmaterialorlabor,thenwhatmayhavebeenaconservativecapitalizationoftheirholdingsatanearlyphase,whiletheirearning-capacityrestedonalargedifferentialadvantage,willbecomeanexcessivecapitalizationaftertheirearning-capacityhasdeclinedthroughlossoftheirdifferentialadvantage。Somebranchorbranchesandsomefirmsorclassoffirmsnecessarilyfallintothispositioninthecourseofaperiodofphenomenallybrisktimes。Abusinessconcernsoplacednecessarilybecomesadebtor,anditsliabilitiesnecessarilybecome,insomedegree,baddebts。Itisforcedbycircumstancestodeliveritsoutputatpriceswhichprecludeitsobtainingsuchamarginasitsextensionofbusinesspresupposed。Thatistosay,itscapitalizationbecomesexcessivethroughshrinkageofitsearning-capacityascountedintermsofprice。Aconcernofthisclasswhichisadebtorisprecludedfrommeetingitsobligationsoutofitscurrentearnings;andif,ascommonlyhappensinanappreciableproportionofcases,itsobligationshavealreadybeenaugmentedtotheextentwhichitsrecentearning-capacitywouldwarrant,thentheconcernisinsolventforthetimebeing。Iftheclaimsagainstitarepressed,ithasnorecoursehutliquidationthroughforcedsalesorbankruptcy。

  Eitherexpedient,ifthecaseisoneofconsiderablemagnitude,isdisastroustothebalancedsequenceofcreditrelationsinwhichthebusinesscommunityisinvolved。Thesystemofcreditrelationsprevailingatsuchatimehasgrownuponthebasisofanearning-capacitytransientlyenhancedbyawaveofdifferentialpriceadvantage;andwhenthiswavehaspassed,evenifitleavespriceshigherallaround,thedifferentialadvantageofatleastmostconcernsispast。Thedifferentialpriceadvantagehascometotheseveralbranchesorfirmsinsuccession,andhas,inthetypicalcase,successivelylefteachwithanexcessivecapitalization,andhasleftmanywithabodyofliabilitiesoutofproportiontotheirsubsequentearning-capacity。Thissituationmay,evidently,comeaboutinthismanner,evenwithoutloweringtheaggregatepecuniary

  earning-capacityofthebusinesscommunitytothelevelatwhichitstoodbeforethewaveofprosperitysetin。11*

  Butwhensuchasituationhascome,allthatisrequiredtobringonthegeneralcatastropheisthatsomeconsiderablecreditorfindoutthatthepresentearning-capacityofhisdebtorwillprobablynotwarrantthecapitalizationonwhichhiscollateralisappraised,Inself-defencehemustdeclinetheextensionofaloan,andforcedliquidationmustfollow。Suchaliquidationinvolvescuttingundertherulingpricesofproducts,whichlessenstheprofitsofcompetingfirmsandthrowsthemintotheclassofinsolvents,andsoextendsthereadjustmentofcapitalization。

  Thepointofdeparturefortheensuingsequenceofliquidationisnotinfrequentlythefailureofsomebankinghouse,butwhenthisisthecaseitisprettysuretobeabankwhosefundshavebeen“tiedup“in“unwise“loanstoindustrialenterprisesoftheclassspokenofabove。12*

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